When the Rains Turn Deadly: Climate Change, Floods, and the Hidden Security Threats in Nigeria

 

Credits: The Nation Newspaper

It was supposed to be another rainy season in Yola. But this time, the heavens opened up with a fury that turned calm streets into raging rivers, especially in the Shagari phase two axis and environs. In just a few hours, homes were submerged, markets swept away, and families left stranded on rooftops waiting for rescue. By the time the waters receded, lives had been lost, properties worth millions destroyed, and entire communities displaced. What happened in Yola is not just a tragic incident; it is a warning sign of a bigger storm that Nigeria is yet to fully confront.

Floods are no longer just “natural disasters” that we read about in the news. They have become a national security threat, silently reshaping our communities, our economy, and even the balance of power in fragile regions.

The Rising Tide: Floods as Nigeria’s Silent Crisis

For decades, Nigerians have lived with the rains. Farmers welcome it, city dwellers complain about potholes and muddy roads, but the seasonal rhythm has always been part of our lives. Today, that rhythm is broken. The floods are fiercer, deadlier, and more destructive than ever.

According to the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the 2022 floods displaced over 1.4 million Nigerians, killed more than 600 people, and destroyed properties worth billions. Those numbers dwarf the devastation caused by some insurgent attacks. The recent Yola tragedy is another reminder that climate change is already rewriting the rules of survival in Nigeria.

Climate Change and the Flood Equation

At the heart of this crisis is climate change. Global warming is intensifying rainfall patterns, while rising temperatures shrink water bodies like Lake Chad, upsetting delicate ecological balances. Add poor urban planning, blocked drainage systems, and reckless building on flood plains, and the result is a disaster waiting to happen.

In Yola, the flooding was worsened by years of unplanned settlements along riverbanks. The Benue River, which snakes through Adamawa, regularly overflows its banks. But climate change has made such overflows more unpredictable and devastating.

This is not just an environmental issue; it’s a human security issue. Every time floods strike, they displace families, destroy farmland, and wipe out livelihoods. And when people lose everything, they don’t just suffer in silence; they migrate, they compete for scarce resources, and sometimes they fight.

From Water to Warfare: The Security Dimensions of Flooding

Let’s face the truth: floods are not just about water. They can fuel insecurity in multiple ways:

(i) Displacement and conflict: When thousands are uprooted by floods, they move into already crowded urban centers or IDP camps. This puts pressure on scarce resources like water, food, and housing, breeding tension between host communities and newcomers.

(ii) Gateway for criminals and insurgents: Floods cut off villages, wash away bridges, and make entire areas inaccessible. These disruptions create perfect opportunities for insurgents, bandits, and criminals to exploit communities left vulnerable by disaster.

(iii) Food insecurity: Floods destroy crops, livestock, and farmland. Nigeria, already battling food inflation, cannot afford these recurring agricultural losses. Hunger and desperation are breeding grounds for unrest.

In Adamawa and across the northeast, these dynamics are not abstract. They feed into the same cycle of instability that Boko Haram, ISWAP, and bandit groups exploit.

The Human Cost: Beyond Statistics

Credits: BBC

Behind every flood report are human stories. In Yola, mothers carried children on their heads while trying to wade through chest-high water. Traders lost their goods overnight; years of savings washed away in minutes. Schools shut down, and churches and mosques were turned into makeshift shelters.

The gendered impact is especially stark. Women, often caregivers, carry the burden of displacement, fetching water, cooking in overcrowded camps, and struggling to keep children healthy. Men, traditionally breadwinners, face the humiliation of losing farms, jobs, and dignity, leading to frustration and, in some cases, violence within households. Children are perhaps the greatest victims. A flood does not just wash away books and uniforms; it erases futures. Every missed school term in displaced communities deepens Nigeria’s education crisis.

Policy Gaps: Why Nigeria Keeps Getting Caught Off Guard

Here’s the bitter truth: Nigeria is not helpless against floods but we are poorly prepared.

(a) Reactive, not proactive: Every year, warnings are issued by NEMA and NiMet. Yet, year after year, communities remain unprepared because early warning systems are often weak, underfunded, or overlooked.

(b) Poor urban planning: Cities like Yola, Lokoja, and Lagos expand rapidly with little regulation. Drainages are blocked, houses sprout on waterways, and government agencies look the other way until disaster strikes.
(c) Lack of investment in resilience: Countries like Bangladesh, also flood-prone, have reduced flood deaths drastically through long-term adaptation: elevated housing, embankments, and flood-resilient farming. Nigeria has yet to make such bold investments.
(d) Climate financing gap: Despite being a signatory to global climate agreements, Nigeria has not fully tapped into international climate funds to build resilience for vulnerable communities.

Floods as “Silent Insurgents”

It may sound dramatic, but floods are acting like a silent insurgency, displacing more people than bullets, destroying more homes than bombs, and destabilizing livelihoods faster than armed groups.

If we continue to treat floods as mere “natural disasters” instead of a core national security issue, we risk underestimating their impact. Imagine this: a family displaced by floods in Yola moves into an IDP camp in Maiduguri. Food is scarce, tensions rise, and extremists offer food and shelter in exchange for loyalty. Suddenly, climate-induced displacement becomes fuel for insurgency.

The Way Forward: Turning the Tide

Nigeria can change the story. But it requires leadership, investment, and a shift in mindset.

(i) Strengthen early warning systems: Flood forecasts must translate into community action. Local radio, SMS alerts, and community-based disaster response units can save lives.

(ii) Invest in urban planning and infrastructure: Drainage systems, embankments, and flood zones must be enforced. In the case of Yola, Shagari phase 1 (one) was not substantially affected because it had some of these structures, but much of phase II had none; hence, the devastating impact. Also, illegal building on waterways should be penalized.

(iii) Integrate climate and security policies: The military and security agencies must recognize floods as destabilizing factors. Disaster response should be part of security planning.

(iv) Empower communities: Grassroots adaptation, like flood-resilient farming, elevated storage facilities, and community shelters, can reduce vulnerability.

(v) Access global climate funds: Nigeria must aggressively seek adaptation financing from the Green Climate Fund and other mechanisms.

Conclusion: Learning from Yola

The Yola flood was not just about heavy rain. It was about lives washed away, communities broken, and a country reminded of its vulnerability. Floods are now part of Nigeria’s new insecurity puzzle. They are not just an environmental issue; they are a political, economic, and social challenge. Treating them with the urgency of a national security threat is no longer optional; it is survival.

The rains will come again. The question is, will Nigeria be ready, or will we keep counting losses?

*****By S.B Adams