AI at the Ballot Box: Can Smart Tech Deliver Fair Elections in Nigeria?

 


Introduction 
Picture a polling unit in Kano or Lagos: long queues under the blazing sun, voters eager but anxious, and whispers of vote-buying or ballot stuffing ripple through the crowd. In recent elections, scenes like this have been common across Nigeria. The stakes are high: 93 million registered voters (INEC, 2023), yet persistent problems, logistical breakdowns, voter suppression, and allegations of rigging have undermined trust. Many Nigerians now ask: Can artificial intelligence (AI) change this story? Or will technology simply become another tool in the hands of political elites?

Where AI Meets Local Election Challenges

#1. Tackling voter fraud: AI can analyze voter registration databases to detect duplicates or fake identities. During the 2023 elections, INEC flagged more than 2.7 million invalid registrations, a process that could have been faster and more accurate with AI-powered verification tools. 

#2. Preventing ballot stuffing and violence: Machine vision and drones equipped with AI can monitor polling units in real time, flagging unusual crowd movements or ballot box tampering. Similar tools have been piloted in Kenya and Ghana, suggesting feasibility for Nigeria.

#3. Combatting disinformation: In Nigeria’s hyperactive social media space, false election narratives spread fast. AI-driven fact-checking bots and natural language models can help platforms like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook identify and mitigate coordinated disinformation campaigns. 

#4. Speeding up results collation: AI-powered optical character recognition could reduce errors in transmitting polling results, which in past elections sparked accusations of manipulation.

Systemic Issues AI Alone Can’t Solve

(i) Institutional weaknesses: AI can’t compensate for an electoral body that lacks independence or resources. Even the smartest systems need credible operators. Nigeria’s INEC has faced allegations of bias and operational failures; without reform, tech will be limited.

(ii) Digital Divide: About 40% of Nigerians lack internet access (World Bank, 2024). Rolling out AI-based systems in rural areas risks excluding millions unless digital infrastructure improves.

(iii) Data privacy and surveillance risks: AI election monitoring could morph into state surveillance if safeguards aren’t enforced. Nigeria lacks a robust data protection culture, and weak cybersecurity could expose voter data to misuse.

(iv) Political capture: History shows how powerful actors can subvert reforms. Just as electronic voting machines have been manipulated elsewhere, AI could be co-opted by those seeking to legitimize flawed elections under the veneer of “smart tech.”

Success Stories and Warnings

(a) Kenya (2022): AI-assisted verification helped flag anomalies, but disputes still arose over human interference.

(b) Estonia: A positive model where digital tools improved transparency—but Estonia’s strong institutions are unlike Nigeria’s fragile context.

(c) Cambridge Analytica Scandal: Demonstrates how AI-driven data manipulation can sway elections.

The Nigerian Way Forward

(i)  The need to pilot programs before nationwide adoption:Start with AI tools for voter roll cleaning or result collation in a few states before scaling.

(ii) The need for strong legal framework: Pass robust electoral tech regulations that define AI’s role, set privacy standards, and criminalize manipulation.

(iii) The need to partner with local innovators: Nigerian AI start-ups like Data Science Nigeria or AIHub Africa can develop culturally and contextually tailored tools. 

(iv) The need for public education: Voters must understand how AI works to build trust. Town halls, radio programs, and influencers can help demystify the technology.

(v)The need for institutional reforms first: Strengthen INEC’s independence and accountability before handing it powerful new tools.

Conclusion 

AI isn’t a magic bullet. It can flag suspicious registrations, expose fake news, and speed up collation, but it cannot create political will or integrity. Without reforms, AI risks becoming a sophisticated mask for old problems. However, with transparent systems, civic vigilance, and ethical leadership, Nigeria could harness AI as a genuine tool against electoral malpractice, demonstrating that technology, when grounded in trust and accountability, can deepen democracy.

*****By SB Adams


Works Cited

Afrobarometer. Summary of Results: Afrobarometer Round 9 Survey in Nigeria. Afrobarometer, 2022.

BudgIT. Tracka: Civic Engagement Platform. BudgIT Foundation, 2023, https://yourbudgit.com/tracka

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Monthly Economic Report: December 2024. CBN, Jan. 2025.

Estonia National Cyber Security Center. “Combating Disinformation and Deepfakes during Municipal Elections.” Estonian Government Brief, 2022.

Ghana Electoral Commission. “AI-Assisted Media Monitoring in the 2020 Presidential Elections.” Official Report, Accra, 2021.

Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). 2023 General Elections Official Report: Incidents and Outcomes. Abuja: INEC, 2023.

Kenya Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. “Leveraging Technology for Transparent Elections: Lessons from 2022.” Nairobi Policy Review, 2022.

Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC). Industry Statistics: Broadband Penetration Data for Q1 2024. NCC, Apr. 2024.

Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP). “Nigeria’s Digital Democracy: Why Electoral Reforms Must Address Artificial Intelligence.” SERAP Policy Brief, Lagos, 2023.

Yiaga Africa. Watching the Vote: Election Observation Report for Nigeria’s 2023 General Elections. Abuja: Yiaga Africa, 2023.

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